Thursday, December 14, 2006

Euro/ Yen Hedge for a weak Dollar

The monetary pendulum is never-ending. Remember just a few years ago we had to impose steel tariffs to save the U.S. steel companies, who were struggling with record low steel prices. The losers were the auto companies and their suppliers. Now the auto companies and their suppliers are clamoring for a weak dollar and Asian currency appreciation to relieve them from the outrageously record high costs of steel and copper wire. And to top it off, although the broad steel tariffs were repealed, "anti-dumping" duties up to 40% on corrosion-resistant steel remain in force, so steel users are paying up to 40% more on top of already record prices.

Yet with interest rates relatively low in America , relative to Europe, and the American economy slowing (housing and autos – the biggest sectors linked to almost everything else – are both in trouble), global investors are taking their money out of dollars and putting them into euros, British pounds, and Japanese yen. Result? The dollar continues dropping. As a further result, the Chinese (who hold more dollars than almost anyone else) are losing lots of money. Hence, it will make more and more sense for the Chinese to stop buying dollars, start selling them, and allow their currency to rise relative to the dollar.

But if the Chinese start selling their dollars and push the value of the dollar down even more, doesn't that hurt their export industry which they rely on so much? So, you see the conundrum this obviously presents. The dollar traditionally starts the new year with a rally but this current dollar is more unpredictable than those past examples. This is particularly troublesome if you are trading in the U.S. dollar, because you already have an exposure to this current unpredictable dollar. If you are going to hedge with currency, you want to hedge against that unpredictability. The necessity for a currency hedge with little to no exposure to the U.S. dollar makes sense and the strongest currency pair would be a Yen::Euro pair. The Yen::Euro pair trades on a much narrower trough and has minimal exposure to the US dollar.

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